Turning the Other Cheek?

The Chinese Civil War, which took a decisive turn in the end of 1949, has kept the Taiwan Strait a potential flashpoint in the 21st Century. One week ago, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) based on Taiwan and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) based on the Chinese mainland, signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which acts as a free trade agreement between the two economies. The majority of those in Taiwan and in the international community welcomed this new agreement as part of ever-improving ties between the two sides.

Even before this agreement has arrived for final review in the Legislative Yuan of the Republic of China, there are already rumblings from unknown sources that this may affect U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Even though the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), which has served as the de facto American embassy to Taiwan R.O.C. since 1979, has denied this, it is still not enough assurance considering what was said during a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on the FY11 Defence Budget on June 16.

Near the end of the hearing (starting at 1:18), Senator Feinstein asks Secretary Gates about US arms sales to Taiwan. The senator had visited the Chinese mainland and met with top members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and then visited Taiwan where she met with ROC President Ma Ying-jeou a week prior to this Senate hearing. Senator Feinstein states that she wants to see military exchanges between the United States and the People's Liberation Army, but during her visit, the CCP made it known that these exchanges do not happen due to US arms sales to Taiwan. Senator Feinstein stated for the public record that these arms sales are and will remain an "irritant" to Sino-American relations.

First, I want to make clear that the vast majority of international experts on the region, including the overwhelming majority of those on Taiwan want a peaceful resolution to the civil war. Increasing cultural exchanges allows both sides to recognize the diversity of Chinese culture from different localities. It also allows the Mainland Chinese to rediscover aspects of Chinese culture preserved in Taiwan that were purged during the Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution from 1966-1976. Increasing trade allows the Taiwanese economy to grow after a decade of increasing isolation and allows the Mainland to embrace the market economy a little more. Ultimately, increasing links between the two sides allows more exposure on the Mainland to the world outside the influence of the CCP. The thawing of tension since the inauguration of Ma Ying-jeou is a major watershed in cross-strait relations.

Even so, possessing arms of defensive nature is crucial to ensure that Taiwan will not be intimidated in future talks with the Mainland. Defensive arms allow Taiwan to repel any and (hopefully) all potential military offensives by the People's Liberation Army. It would be erroneous to think that I support violence, because I cannot stress enough that all nonviolent solutions must be attempted with all efforts from both sides when dealing with conflict resolution. However, the 1,200 short-range missiles pointed at Taiwan on the other side of the narrow Strait along with many more medium-range missiles in the Chinese hinterland are constant reminders that self-defence may be necessary as a last resort. (This kind of defence also differs from preemptive strikes and imperialism as we have seen from other more powerful militaries.) The defence that Taiwan is concerned with cannot be resolved by promises of missile redeployment from the leadership of the CCP. As Senator Feinstein herself admits, redeploying these missiles does not mean removing them.

What can the CCP do so the United States would stop selling arms to Taiwan? Well, Senator Feinstein, as Secretary Gates pointed out, arms sales to Taiwan is codified in the Taiwan Relations Act that the U.S. Congress passed in 1979, so arms sales will not end overnight. It will take years, if not decades of decreased tensions between the two sides of the Strait before the United States should consider canceling all future arms sales to Taiwan. In a recent CNN interview, President Ma Ying-jeou explicitly stated that he will never ask the United States to fight for Taiwan. This is because Taiwan should be able to defend itself, but it cannot do that with its aging and outdated military equipment. This is mainly due to the fact that arms sales experienced a de facto freeze from the late-1990s to the late-2000s when tension between the two sides of the Strait were at its highest since the 1950s. Therefore, with relations between the two sides now at its best in history and brinkmanship low, there can be no better time to ensure that Taiwan is well-equipped militarily. Reducing defensive arms sales to Taiwan now would be a major mistake, not only because it would be seen as the United States appeasing the People's Liberation Army, but also because Taiwan needs to continue to be able to work from a position of confidence with the CCP in its efforts to increase exchanges between the two sides.