Four Degrees of Separation (from reality)

Over the weekend, the big news from Durban, South Africa is that the international community reached a compromise about what the world economies should do to curtail climate change. While politicians celebrate the victory of agreeing on a deal, scientists are shaking their heads.


It is not a surprise that this "deal" was reached after the embarrassing failures at Copenhagen and Cancun.


The majority of climatologists agree that in order to prevent significant climate change, the Earth can only tolerate about 350 ppm of greenhouse gases in order to keep the average global temperature from rising beyond 2 degrees Celsius. Currently, we will be approaching 500 ppm soon and the events of this past weekend indicate that we are going to be reaching about 4 degrees within the next half century. In fact, in order to get to the 350 ppm mark before it is too late, greenhouse gas emissions will need to reach their peak in the next five years and by the end of the decade will need to decrease by at least 40% (from 1990 levels).


Even though mitigating climate change is now a political impossibility, there are still ways we as an international community can adapt to the effects of climate change. This will not be any easier than mitigating climate change, because as The Guardian reports, a world that averages a rise of 4 degrees Celsius can expect the following: 

...the Arctic permafrost enters the danger zone. The methane and carbon dioxide currently locked in the soils will be released into the atmosphere. At the Arctic itself, the ice cover would disappear permanently, meaning extinction for polar bears and other native species that rely on the presence of ice. Further melting of Antarctic ice sheets would mean a further 5m rise in the sea level, submerging many island nations. Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey become deserts and mid-Europe reaches desert temperatures of almost 50C in summer. Southern England's summer climate could resemble that of modern southern Morocco.

There is also an interactive map that the Met Office has developed that you can check out here. It shows that in California, we can expect about a 3-degree increase from pre-industrial levels, but what does this mean?

1. Less snow in the Sierra Nevadas and more rain for the rest of California.
   At first, this sounds like a good thing, because it can reduce the times we are in drought. However, our current infrastructure is built to handle the gradual melting of snow and not intense periods of rainfall. All the additional rainfall will also cause more flooding, especially if we do not retrofit our ageing levies. We will also need to accommodate for the increase in demand for potable drinking water in the next several decades.
2. Increases in public health hazards
   More extreme heat will naturally lead to more deaths due to heat stroke and other conditions that the infirm may develop due to inability to handle high temperatures. It also means that diseases that thrive in warmer temperatures south of the border will progressively find a natural habitat in California. Finally, there will be increased risk of wildfires and worsening air pollution.
3. Increases in energy demand and decreases in energy supply
   The obvious result of warmer weather is that people use the AC more often, but climate change causing less snow-melt is that there will be a reduction in hydro-power. This means that we will need to offset that with other energy sources, whether it be renewable or conventional sources.
4. Dwindling bread basket of America
   Crops that are not adjusted to the changing climate will naturally die off, which poses a problem for the economy of the Central Valley and California as a whole. All the hazards that affect humans will affect plants too, such as flooding, new diseases, etc.

It is time that the leaders of our country focus more on adapting to climate change as part of economic recovery instead of seeing it as something that hinders economic recovery.